There are poker players out there, those who play both online and offline in bricks casinos, who make it look like the easiest thing in the world.  Phil Ivey comes to mind there — but if you ever get the chance to ask him, even he will tell you that it is never, ever an absolute certain, one hundred percent positive bet.

It might seriously burst your bubble to hear this, but quite often — more often than you are likely thinking, in fact — the road to flopping quad kings is paved with nothing more than luck and coincidence.  The cards you are dealt are the cards you are dealt.  You can bluff it, of course, but you have to be darn good.

Generally, you can be more optimistic if you have two kings and one turns up in the flop.  You will be able to tell, a little, from the betting rounds just how excited your competitors are, which may give you an idea if they have a king as well.

Think about it, honestly.  Whether you are sharing the table with nine other players or with only three, you do not know what any of those players has.  It is a sure bet that, in most hands, at least one other player has a King.  That one King can mess you up — you have already failed at flopping quad kings.

Say you feel pretty sure no one else has Kings.  It is not extremely rare to get dealt two kings yourself, and it is not rare for a King to show up in the Flop, the Turn, or the River.  However, the odds are high that you will get the flop you need.  Quad Kings are not quite a sucker’s bet, but it’s something you don’t want to work towards unless you’re sure.